Retention & Cohorts

Are we keeping customers, and where do we need to intervene before they lapse? Heuristic flags only — no predictive ML in Phase 1.

Headline KPIs

Repeat rate

31.4%

-3.4% vs PY-1.2% vs prev

2nd-purchase gap (median)

84 days

+9.0% vs PY+4.0% vs prev

90-day retention

22.1%

-1.7% vs PY-0.8% vs prev

12-month retention

44.6%

+2.4% vs PY+1.1% vs prev

Active customers

218.4K

+5.8% vs PY+1.2% vs prev

Lapsing (≥180d)

85.3K

+9.4% vs PY+4.1% vs prev

Reactivated

7.2K

+4.1% vs PY-1.8% vs prev

Cohort retention

Cell shade = % of cohort still active that month

Cohort	M0	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12
Jun	100	43	41	37	30	29	28	25	23	22	21	19	18
Jul	99	43	38	37	33	30	29	28	24	24	18	16
Aug	98	44	40	36	31	31	30	24	22	23	20
Sep	100	42	39	34	31	31	28	23	25	20
Oct	100	44	36	37	31	32	30	28	23
Nov	99	43	41	34	34	31	27	25
Dec	100	44	38	33	33	32	30
Jan	98	43	40	36	32	29
Feb	100	41	38	34	33
Mar	100	41	38	35
Apr	100	41	40
May	100	40

Second-purchase gap distribution

Modal range: 31–60 days · long tail past 180 days suggests replenishment-flow opportunity.

Lapsing risk trend

≥90d≥180d≥365d

Reactivation performance

Automation

3,420

customers reactivated

€184K

attributed revenue

Campaign

2,810

customers reactivated

€142K

attributed revenue

Unattributed

1,010

customers reactivated

€38K

attributed revenue

Cohort	M0	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12
Jun	100	43	41	37	30	29	28	25	23	22	21	19	18
Jul	99	43	38	37	33	30	29	28	24	24	18	16
Aug	98	44	40	36	31	31	30	24	22	23	20
Sep	100	42	39	34	31	31	28	23	25	20
Oct	100	44	36	37	31	32	30	28	23
Nov	99	43	41	34	34	31	27	25
Dec	100	44	38	33	33	32	30
Jan	98	43	40	36	32	29
Feb	100	41	38	34	33
Mar	100	41	38	35
Apr	100	41	40
May	100	40

Cohort	M0	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12
Jun	100	43	41	37	30	29	28	25	23	22	21	19	18
Jul	99	43	38	37	33	30	29	28	24	24	18	16
Aug	98	44	40	36	31	31	30	24	22	23	20
Sep	100	42	39	34	31	31	28	23	25	20
Oct	100	44	36	37	31	32	30	28	23
Nov	99	43	41	34	34	31	27	25
Dec	100	44	38	33	33	32	30
Jan	98	43	40	36	32	29
Feb	100	41	38	34	33
Mar	100	41	38	35
Apr	100	41	40
May	100	40

Cohort	M0	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12
Jun	100	43	41	37	30	29	28	25	23	22	21	19	18
Jul	99	43	38	37	33	30	29	28	24	24	18	16
Aug	98	44	40	36	31	31	30	24	22	23	20
Sep	100	42	39	34	31	31	28	23	25	20
Oct	100	44	36	37	31	32	30	28	23
Nov	99	43	41	34	34	31	27	25
Dec	100	44	38	33	33	32	30
Jan	98	43	40	36	32	29
Feb	100	41	38	34	33
Mar	100	41	38	35
Apr	100	41	40
May	100	40